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Decline Shale/tight oil vs SAGD

Above pilot SAGD well from IPCO Blackrod developement notice how the production profile looks way different towards the typical shale / tight oil production profile. Compare with chart further below.

Here production start slower in a ramp up, stays on plateau for almost two years and then a slow decline with increased steam to oil ratio but nothing dramatic.

Above chart from i have selected all wells from Permian with ”first oil = 2016” => 2247 wells that have this average production profile. Notice the difference quick ramp up to about 500 barrels / day and then a steep decline profile with no plateau at all.

After 36 monts on service only 370 wells of the original 2247 are still in action the thickness of the line represents numbers of wells so its easy to notice where they start to hit their economic end of life.

IPCO stated that sustain cost for their SAGD wells are 5 dollars / barrel, i assume that means cost to keep production on plateau in average for this development. Its quite obvious witch production that is economically viable and what production that is marginally economic in best case. (not factoring in debt burden that gets put on new shale wells from all the old that didn’t pay out)


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