This post is just a visualization attempt to support my feeling of the state of of production levels at the northern Ghawar or more specific the
N’Ain Dar part of the field in an ongoing discussion on Peakoilbarrel.com . (What used to be the best part of the Ghawar and where the first discovery was made and also where the best producing well back in the days were located when the wells where vertical.)
Above just for reference the image i posted on Peakoilbarrel.com with top producing wells trough history and where we have the Ain dar – 1 well and the thing i found most interesting with the image the production level in 2008 for the same well. My argument was that this well is most likely positioned in the top of the reservoir in the best section (duh it has the same name as the best section) and from this we can conclude that the northern part of Ghawar or the Ain Dar is more or less done.
Today the well as Ron pointed out is most probably converted to a horizontal well, creaming the top of whats left in the Ain Dar just above water level so production on that well might actually be higher today than it was when it was new as a vertikal well but the horizontal just means its more effective at draining the remaining oil and when the horizontal cant be moved higher any longer and water hits it it will be more like flipping a light switch then a fade in my opinion (a very rapid final decline, i dont believe it will go from whatever production it has to 0 over a day just to be clear on that)
Here we have some images after a quick search that supports or actually confirms what i suspected that the Ain Dar -1 is located in the top of the Ain Dar section witch is the best part of Ghawar.
One more image above with well locations and dates, interesting toghether with table below where we again can conclude that the best wells are located in the northern best parts.
Below we have the water saturation over time for a section where the Ain Dar 1 well is located.
Below Euan Mearns Ghawar high case model witch i believe is spot on and have the North and South Ain Dar sections producing 0 today. I believe that is close to the truth today.
Below also an image from Euan Mearns, i think it speaks for it self.
All of this together i believe the northern parts of Ghawar are more or less done and today stands for a fraction of total remaining production from the combined Ghawar field.